Thursday, 29 November 2012

Week 13 Tossing Horseshoes: Here Comes the Sun

Last Week: 2-5 (Including Thanksgiving Day games)
Season: 39-25 (61%)

How fitting is it that my worst week of the year comes directly after my 'No sure thing is sports' post? Let’s rid ourselves of all that negative energy and go into this week with a positive mindset and change our fortunes. I present to you a song that makes me smile even on the darkest days; Here Comes the Sun by The Beatles. Enjoy!

Texans -6 @ Titans

The Houston Texans were playing tired football leading up to their Thanksgiving Day game versus the Lions. Their fatigue was most noticeable on defense as the Texans allowed an average of 34 points over their past two games. Look for the extra rest coming into their Sunday game to rejuvenate a tired Texans squad. According to the "Texans are 6-2 ATS in the past 8 games vs the Titans." Moreover, the "Titans are 1-8 ATS in their past 9 games within division." The last time these two teams met at the end of September this year, the Texans won a laugher 38-14.

Statistically speaking, the Texans are superior in almost every single aspect of the game. On defense, the Texans allow 4.0 rushing YPA (yards per attempt) and 6.6 passing YPA, both top 10 in the NFL respectively. On the other hand, the Titans are allowing 4.3 rushing YPA and 7.8 passing YPA.

You may be surprised to hear that the Titans run at a more efficient clip of 4.7 YPA as opposed to the Texans' 4.2 YPA. Nonetheless, the Texans will take an early lead on Sunday, essentially eliminating the Titans' running game and Chris Johnson.

A team that struggles coming off the bye like the Titans did last week are poorly coached and disengaged. Consequently, OC Chris Palmer became the sacrificial lamb in Tennessee, getting fired following their loss against Jacksonville. The Texans will cease the moment and take advantage of an out of sorts Titans team.

Vikings, Packers 'OVER' 46.5

Aaron Rodgers will be in a celebratory mood against the Vikings defense

Aaron Rodgers will be looking to put last week's lopsided loss behind him by passing early and often. According to Oddsshark, the OVER is 7-2 in the past 9 Packers games as favorites of 8+ points. Simply put, Rodgers delivers when he's expected to do so. Greg Jennings is supposed to return on Sunday, adding yet another weapon to Rodgers' arsenal. Additionally, the Vikings have struggled on defense in their last 4 games, allowing an average of 29.5 PPG. (points per game) In that span, they have especially struggled against the pass conceding an average QB rating of 106.

The Packers' defense has lamented  the losses  of both Clay Matthews and Charles Woodson. They have given up 25 PPG in their last 3 games and are now susceptible to long plays. Despite Christian Ponder's recent struggles, Adrian Peterson cannot be eliminated from the equation as he has reached the end zone in both of his previous two meetings with Green Bay. Look for AP to be a thorn on the Packers' side once again.

Bears -3.5 vs. Seahawks

Home field advantage means a great deal to both the Bears and the Seahawks when you examine their home records; 5-1 for the former and 5-0 for the latter. From Walter Football, the Seahawks are 2-11 ATS on the road vs. teams that average 24+ points ppg, since 2007. The Bears are scoring 25.2 PPG thus far this season. While Russel Wilson's play on the road has improved of late, his home and away splits are less that ideal averaging 122 QB rating at home and a measly 75.5 on the road.

True home field advantage for both teams emerges on defense. Chicago has allowed 13.1 PPG at home as opposed to 19.2 PPG on the road. Similarly, Seattle has conceded 13.8 PPG at home versus 19.3 PPG on the road. According to Team Rankings Power Rating, Seattle drops from 1st to 28th in the NFL going from home to away. Conversely, Chicago drops only from 6th to 8th in the NFL in their home and away splits. Therefore, Seattle's success is heavily reliant on their home conditions whereas Chicago is more consistent all over. Against a team that struggles on the road, I have no qualms taking the dependable Bears at home as 3.5 point favorites.

Panthers -3 @ Chiefs

Don't be fooled by the Panthers 3-8 record, they are a better team in reality. They have had one of the toughest schedules in the NFL according to Team Rankings; their opponents combined season record this season is 63-47. Cam Newton may not be as good as he was last year, but he's still a potent QB in the NFL when motivated. The argument can be made that Newton has no reason to be motivated against a 1-10 Chiefs team. I would suggest that Newton will play to silence his critics in this winnable game. The Chiefs are allowing a horrid 8.3 passing YPA, (30th in the NFL) and Cam will throw the ball with ease.

A major part of this pick is about fading the Chiefs and Brady Quinn. The Chiefs have one of the worst passing games in the league and Quinn does not resemble a starting QB. Even in 3rd and short situations, the accuracy of Quinn or lack thereof, curtails drives. Chiefs only chance to win this game will be to heavily rely on the prowess of Jamal Charles. The Panthers have struggled to stop the run giving up 4.5 rushing YPA, (25th in the NFL) but will be prepared for Jamal Charles unline Bryce Brown, forcing Quinn to beat them through the air. I will bet on Cam Newton over Brady Quinn any day.

Cam Newton doing the Superman on Sunday, Over/Under: 2?

Patriots -7.5 @ Dolphins

This season, New England has played better on the road than at home. The Patriots are 4-1 ATS on the road as opposed to being just 2-3 ATS at home. Offensively, the Patriots have better numbers across the board than Miami. Tom Brady has been playing at a MVP level recently averaging a QB rating of 124 and a TD/INT ratio of 12/0 in his last 4 games. Look for Brady to be focused against a divisional foe on the road. According to Jeff Grant at SBRForum, the road team has covered the spread in eight of the last 10 meetings between these teams. Even without Rob Gronkowski, the Pats have an abundance of firepower on offense and will not be slowed by the Dolphins D.

As expected from a rookie quarterback, Ryan Tannehill has been inconsistent this season. Over the past four games, Tannehill has plopped a stinky 3/6 TD/INT ratio with an ugly 68.3 QB Rating. The Patriots allow a large number of yards through the air, 7.9 YPA to be exact. But the addition of Aquib Talib has added another dimension to the Pats defense and the results are already on display as the Patriots have four interceptions over their past two games. Even with a smoking hot wife, Ryan Tannehill's confidence will be low facing the revamped Patriots D. Reggie Bush, Miami's biggest threat on offense, will be disregarded in the running game once the Patriots are off to an early lead. Even with a large spread, the circumstances point to the Patriots covering.

Even with smokin' hot wife Lauren Tannehill, Ryan Tannehill's confidence will be low come Sunday

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here. I often put my thoughts on the SNF and MNF games on the comments section as well.

Big shout to Norin (@norin_ondeck) for editing my blog. Follow him on twitter and check out his in game banter.

Thanks very much for reading and please be sure to follow my blog and share it with your pals. Good luck with your bets amigos!

Happy Winnings,



  1. BOL Omie to all your picks...Lets get them cashed!!!

  2. omie, got anything for tonites game, your picks for sunday are great, lets all of us horseshoe people have a great wkn. best of luck to all

    1. Thanks Ron! Hope this Sunday will be more glorious that last.

      Best of luck to you as well!

  3. I expect the Saints to play desperate football to try to save their season. They have much more to lose than the 10-1 Falcons. The Saints also have an advantage in terms of red zone offense and defense in terms of percentages.

    The only reason I don't feel comfortable taking the Saints with Money Line is because Atlanta has shown that it can win close games without playing at their best. I think it will still be a closely contested game.

    I'll take the Saints at +3.5

  4. NE at -9, what book do you use, there -7.5 at a lot of places still. Why don't use do teasers, there way more effective IMO:

    6.5 teaser: NE-2.5, CAR+3.5, CHI+3, HOU pk, GB-MIN over 40
    Pays 5.00 to 1.00 or +400

    1. Thanks for pointing that out, I have made the adjustment here. I am currently using Bodog and Sports Interaction. I definitely need to open another account somewhere; thinking BET365. Any suggestions?

      I usually put in a weekly teaser bet, I just don't blog about it. I may start putting my teaser bets in the comments section.

      My Weekly bets consists of:

      1 Parlay of my weekly picks (small bet)
      1 Teaser consisting of 2 to 4 outcomes (regular bet)
      4-6 Single outcomes bet (regular bet)

    2. Bet365 is hands down my favorite site. Was on SI and 5Dimes, not a fan of those. Never had a single problem with Bet365, first withdrawal took 2 weeks, since then 3 business days. Only drawback is you only get 1 wire transer per 28 days. No site in the world is better for live betting then bet365.

      My weekly bets consist of:

      1 or 2 lottery parlays (very small bet)
      1 2gm 6pt teaser (MA$$IVE BET)
      2 6-10 gm teasers
      Various single/live bets

      Basically my 2gm teaser is the difference maker, been hitting them at sikk rate, last week had DEN CIN, this week NE & either SF or BAL (depending on if Batch plays for PIT)

    3. Cool! I will open an account on BET365 for sure.

      Good to hear it's working out. As long as your wagers are consistent and you're predicting at a decent clip, you should be able to make a profit.

      Appreciate the input. Good luck this week!

  5. omie that sounds good, i agree. should be a tough game tks Ron

  6. What and absolute train wreck of a week, I don't even want to think about it anymore.... the Chargers...4th and can be so cruel and that was just one of its more atrocious moments. Let's jump back up on that horse and make some money. Here are my Podium Picks for this week:

    Bronze Pick (2-2)

    New York Jets -4.5 vs. Arizona Cardinals

    I'll be very plain and simple with this pick. The Cardinals are starting a QB named Ryan Lindley, who was a third stringer for a team that had started John Skelton and Kevin Kolb prior, just ugly. You have to feel for Larry Fitzgerald, the man just can't seem to play with any talent around him. This team was defeated by a mediocre Rams squad by a score of 31-17, with Lindley throwing for a measly 64 yards, ouch! The Jets are no super squad (as they showed with their Thanksgiving shellacking) but as they have shown before they tend to beat down on teams that are presumed to be inferior to them. After a blowout loss to the Seahawks the Jets took out Rams (who smashed the Cardinals) convincingly 27-13. Look for the Jets D to impose their will on a woeful Arizona offense, and bounce back from a disappointing lose to the Patriots last week.

    Silver Pick (2-1-1)

    Jacksonville Jaguars +6 @ Buffalo Bills

    I was really shocked to find Jacksonville as an underdog in this matchup, this team is no longer starting the horrendous Blaine Gabbert, and finally handed the reigns over to Chad Henne who has opened up this passing attack and impressed me so far. Since Henne has taken over the starting QB spot he almost upset the Houston Texans (close overtime loss) and defeated the Tennessee Titans. As history has shown, 8 of the last 10 meeting between these squads has been decided by less than a touchdown, so there is no reason to think a mediocre Buffalo team will win by a touchdown. The Bills no longer have faith in Fitzpatrick (the GM has clearly stated he is not the QB of the future) and their expensive offseason acquisitions have not lived up to the hype, especially on defense. Look for Henne to shred this D with the strong young receivers at his disposal and keep this game close and win us some money.

    Gold Pick (3-1)

    New Orleans Saints +3 @ Atlanta Falcons

    As the old saying goes "history will repeat itself" and history has shown that the Saints simply have the Falcons number no matter where they play. In the last 8 match ups the Saints have defeated the Falcons 7 times and only lost by a field goal once, those are hard numbers to deny. Aside from the numbers I like the setup as well, the Saints are 5-6 and are in desperation mode to make the playoffs, while the Falcons are sitting pretty at 10-1 and have also not been playing their best football of late. Look for Drew Brees to have his way with this Atlanta defense, and for Ingram and Sproles to have solid games on the ground. Give me the team fighting for its playoff life and with history backing its side.

    That's it for this week's addition of the Podium Picks; good luck and see you all next week.

    1. Nice picks Sots. I like the Saints and the Jags as well. I'm indifferent about the Jets.

      Good luck on Sunday!

    2. Thanks Omar. Too bad Brees decided to shit the bed on the Saints most important game! 5 picks and no TD's!!!!

  7. If you thought Drew Brees' 54 consecutive games passing TD streak would end tonight, give yourself a pat on the back and buy yourself a lottery ticket.

    He only needed one TD pass to cover :(

  8. God knows that somehow, someway, teams cover even though they are outmatched in talent. So, instead of betting the Texans and Patriots straight up, I teased them. I have Patriots-1.5 and Texans at a pick. I am fully aware of any given Sunday, but if those two teams play mediocre, they should still win the games. I also like the Bengals over the Chargers. The Chargers look dead in the water, and I don't believe they have that late in the season spurge they'e done in that past. And lastly, I like the Giants. It's an important divisional game, so I think they will show up for it. If they show up, they have too much talent for the Skins to handle.

    1. Kyle, I agree with what you said about the Texans and the Patriots. Although I still believe they'll cover, I will also be teasing them in a separate bet.

      I'm not touching the Bengals/Chargers game but I wonder if the Bengals are good enough to be -2.5 road favorites against the Chargers. If the Chargers stop that 4th and 29 play, they would likely be a slight favorite this week. You may argue that the Chargers will be demoralized and you would have a case for sure.

      I will have a hard time betting against RGIII in a prime time situation but I haven't made up my mind yet on that game. Regardless, it should be a great game.

      Good luck on Sunday Kyle!

    2. Ravens always struggle vs the Chargers, plus they are the worst 9-2 team ever. To their credit, they do know how to win, even if it's really ugly and/or lucky. Ever since the Bengals weird loss versus the Browns, they've been playing very good football. They went toe to toe with both the Broncos and the Steelers (with a healthy Big Ben), and then went on a three game winning streak, beating the Giants, Chiefs and Da Raiders. I can understand why you don't believe in the Bengals on the road - their biggest win on it was over the Redskins in week 3. Unless the Chargers completely outplay the Bengals and get a big lead, you must believe that Rivers and Turner will find a way to blow another game.

      Anyway, my big bet this week is the teaser -so for our sake, I hope not only both teams win, but they win by a strong margin. That way you win both your picks and I don't have to stress about the games.

    3. Lol @ "Rivers and Turner finding ways to blow games." Very true indeed.

      Amen to having a week without too much stress. Week 11 was glorious but it definitely took a months from my life expectancy :D

      My Teaser this week

      Texans -1
      Patriots -2.5
      Packers -2

      Best of Luck Kyle!

    4. Unfortunate the Patriots didn't cover, especially in that way since it felt like they won more than seven. That said, they didn't play their a-game today, but as a Patriots fan, I am fully aware that they never play their a-game at Miami. Take the Bengals; you won't be disappointed :-).

    5. The teaser saved me though, thank goodness.

      I put in a small bet on the bengals with the lines dropping and following your confidence :-)

      Good luck to us!

    6. Bengals are playing like dog shit, but as long as they keep it close, I think they will pull it off in the 4th.

    7. Thanks for the tip Kyle! Glad it worked out for us :)

  9. First time here,pretty cool site!!!

  10. Thanks T-Bone! Hope to see you here more often :) Let's hope for some good results tomorrow.

    If you got some bets going, good luck on your bets!

  11. Been following your blog and enjoy reading your posts...Too bad it's been a tough couple of weeks...Any thoughts on tonight's game?

    1. Take the Giants-3. They are a great road team and play great in December, plus they got a lot of their star players back last week. I don't know why Redskins are so overvalued here. They are on a two game winning streak, but beat the Eagles, a bad team, and Cowboys, a mediocre at the very best team. As a matter of fact, they haven't beaten an over .500 team this season yet. One last thing, the Redskins secondary gives up the second to most yards, give up 25.9 points per game, and is second to last in getting off the field on the 3rd down.

    2. Appreciate the kind words even during some tough times.

      I'll be taking the Giants tonight like my buddy Kyle. I think the bye did the Giants a lot of good and they're looking to get on a roll. Plus, all this talk about RGIII will have the Giants extra motivated for this game. Like Kyle mentioned, the Giants are impressive in December with a 31-18 ATS record.

      I love RGIII and think he's a big time performer so I'm keeping this a small bet.

      Good luck tonight Wswhite and Kyle!

  12. I also have a gut feeling about the 'Under'. 51.5 is an elevated number and it will likely keep rising until game time.

    The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Giants last 7 games on the road. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Washington's last 5 games when playing NY Giants.

    Good luck tonight friends!

  13. Giants had a lot of costly penalties and looked like the Giants of two weeks ago. 3-1 for this week, but my five star play hit (the 6-point teaser). Oh well, too bad I couldn't have my second perfect week in a row. As a sports fan, I am glad for RGIII, though. He legitimized himself in this game and played an extremely smart game that made me feel like I was watching someone who's been in the NFL for a half of a decade already.

    1. RGIII is definitely fun to watch even though the Giants kept him under control for most of the game.

      The 'Under' bet salvaged the night but it was still a poor weak for me. Time to regroup and come back strong!

  14. I forgot to mention that the Redskin coaches badly out-coached the Giants coaches.

  15. Week 14 Tossing Horseshoes will be released with the next 24 hours. I look forward to your company friends.

  16. Hey man, any picks for tonights game?

  17. I'm laying off the spread tonight. I do like the 'Under' 48.5 though. If you exclude the Thanksgiving Day games, the Under is 8-3 in TNF games. Teams tend to take a conservative approach in this game. It's for the very reason my gut is leaning towards the Raiders with McFadden returning tonight. But I'm still not touching the spread tonight.

    But I do have a 10 point teaser going tonight.

    Broncos -1
    Raiders +21
    'Under' 58.5

    I'm pretty confident about it. Good luck tonight!

  18. These Thursday night games have been disasters. Another epic fail via Rodger Goodell.

  19. As a selfish football fan, I enjoy watching football an extra night a week so I'm not complaining.

    But the quality of the teams involved along with their conservative approach has made most of the TNF games quite unmemorable.