Friday, 26 October 2012

Week 8 Tossing Horseshoes: Halloween Horror (with Recap)

Last week: 3-2
Season: 21-15

Even though I had a pretty lousy day with my bets last Sunday, the day was a glorious one. The weather was beautiful in Toronto. A bunch of our buddies got together at 11 am. and had brunch and beer. Then we played some football; I was nicknamed 'The Gloves' because I was wearing my sweet under armor football gloves and was catching all the balls coming my way. Starting at 1 pm. ensued an almost non stop football viewing lasting almost 11 hours.

Although I went 3-2 last week, both loses hurt a bit more than usual for different reasons. The 'OVER' 45 call on the Browns vs. Colts hurt because that was my most confident pick of the day; I called it my "gold pick" smh.  
"Luck sometimes visits a fool, but it never sits down with him."German Proverb. Luck didn't do either for me last week (pun intended)

Don't get me wrong, I understand I was pretty lucky to get the Dallas win at -2.5, so I should accept the bad luck with the good. But don't forget: 'Luck is what happens when preparation meets opportunity.' Seneca (5 BC – 65 AD).

Let's hope to avoid some Halloween horror this week and strike something like this...


Eagles -2.5 vs. Falcons

Eagles, Falcons 'UNDER' 45

Let's start with the spread... The Eagles seem to be a team in total disarray, firing their defensive coordinator Juan Castillo. But with Andy Reid on the hot seat yet again, look for the Eagles to be amped up this week. With the tight division race in the NFC East, this game means more to the Eagles (3-3) than the (6-0) Falcons. Interestingly, the Eagles are 6-0 SU (straight up) in their last 6 games at home against the Falcons and 5-0-1 ATS (against the spread). With some lousy weather on the horizon for Sunday (more on this in a bit), expect both teams to lean on their running game which clearly favors the Eagles. The Falcons allow a whopping 5.2 yards per carry (31st in the NFL). Even though I jumped on this spread earlier in the week at -1 (-120), I still like the Eagles at -2.5 or -3.

A couple of favorable points for picking the Eagles this week from WalterFootball:
 1. For whatever reason, Reid is awesome coming off a bye. He's never lost, covering 10 of 13 chances. Betting on favorites with an extra week to prepare is usually a good betting proposition anyway.
 3. Reid owns the Falcons. Excluding a Week 17 contest in which he sat his starters, he's 7-2 against the spread against Atlanta throughout his tenure. He's 3-1 ATS versus Matt Ryan, with the only loss coming last year when his team blew a big lead after QBDK suffered an injury.

Recap: Nothing seems to be going right for the Eagles the past few weeks. Firing the defensive coordinator didn't do much for that D. I was surprised how comfortable Matt Ryan looked on the road. The Falcons were the better team and they took care of business.

LeSean McCoy will bust out some big runs against the Falcons

Now for the under... There's a 90% chance of precipitation this Sunday in Philadelphia. Both teams will throw the ball cautiously. The Eagles are already a low scoring team averaging only 17.2 points per game. The high scoring team, the Falcons are away from their comfort zone, The Dome, on a rainy, chilly afternoon. The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia. The Falcons D is strong against the pass and weak against the run while the Ealges D is strong against the run and weak against the pass. Even with a modest total of 45, both D are good enough to restrict the scoring with a bit of help from mother nature.

Recap: As a fairly new NFL bettor, I learned a very valuable lesson this week. Don't bet on an outcome almost solely based on the weather, with more than 24 hours left to the game. I was clearly expecting Cleveland's weather in Philadelphia and I didn't get it.


Lions -1 vs. Seahawks

The Lions have been a disappointment so far. In my opinion, expectations were a bit too high for this team coming into the season, specially without Jahvid Best. However, I'm picking the Lions this week because I don't trust Russell Wilson to have much success on Sunday. Wilson has an away QB rating of 57.3 as opposed to his home QB rating of 115.2. His TD/INT ratio away is 2/7 while his home TD/INT ratio is 6/0. The offense will still run through Marshawn Lynch, but the Lions rush D is a decent one allowing 4.1 yards per carry.
As we saw last week, it's impossible to keep Stafford quiet for the entire game. Taking better care of the ball in the red zone will allow the Lions to put up some points on the board. Whether he connects with Megatron or someone else, Stafford will lead his team and our picks to victory.

Recap: As a Matt Stafford owner in fantasy, I was delighted by his performance. Both Titus Young Jr. and Ryan Broyles played well and they'll get plenty of opportunities defenses focusing on Megatron and with Burleson out. If they can establish a bit of a running game, the Lions will be tough to beat.

Redskins, Steelers 'OVER' 47

Redskins -4.5 @ Steelers


In RGIII I trust

**Update: The weather won't be very cooperative for the OVER on Sunday so I'm updating my pick. I'll take the Redskins at +4.5. More on this to come.

The Redskins looked impressive last week on the road against the Giants. Whereas the Steelers looked pretty ordinary, although the dropped balls didn't help. RGIII is the type of X factor that if healthy, he can put up points against any defense by throwing or running. People may say "that's too much hype for a player who's only played 7 games in the NFL", but RGIII is special. The key for the Redskins will be to limit the turnovers and maximize their opportunities on offense. They had 4 turnovers last week leading to missed opportunities.

The advantage in the passing game would certainly go to the Steelers in this game. But the infancy of Hurricane Sandy will change the game plans of both teams and they will be running the ball more often. Jonathan Dwyer had a very good week last week. Things won't go as smoothly this week against a Redskins rush D that allows only 3.9 YPC (9th in the NFL). The Redskins have better personnel to run against a D that isn't what it used to be. No matter the final score, this game will be close enough for the Redskins to cover.

Recap: Maybe it was the rain or the conditions, but over 10 drops in a game will kill any team. But the Redskins couldn't come up with any stops and let the Steelers score at will in the first half. It was a pretty frustrating game to watch cheering for the Redskins.

Giants -2 @ Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys have 14-12 regular season record in their newly built $1.2 billion stadium. Not much of a home field advantage if you ask me. I have a few explanations for their struggles at home...
1) IT'S NOT VERY LOUD: The stadium is so huge, that even when 80,000 or 100,000 are making noise at the game, it doesn't sound as loud and intimidating to the opposition. Plus the Cowboys often don't give these fans much to cheer about at home.
2) OPPOSITION FANS ARE IN THE HOUSE: It's a state of the art, publicized stadium. Fans want to attend a game at Cowboys Stadium. It's enticing for fans to travel with their team to go watch a game at Cowboys stadium. Remember how many Bears fans were in attendance in Dallas during their week 4 match up?
3) IT BRINGS THE BEST OUT OF THEIR OPPONENTS: The Cowboys Stadium is so grand and dignified that opposition players elevate their game a notch to put on a show on this stage.

Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home. Dallas is 5-12-1 ATS in their last 18 games when playing NY Giants. The Giants will be looking to avenge their week 1 home loss to the Cowboys. The motivated New York team will win a close one.

Recap: Poor Tony Romo and Dez Bryant. But instead of trying to blame them, I will put this loss on coach Garret and his mismanagement of the game. I'm not complaining because it gave the Giants the win. I believe they took the foot of the pedal taking a big early lead and tried to coast their way to a victory. It almost cost them.

Cowboys Stadium: Home field advantage?

Last Week:3-2
Season: 21-15

Happy Winnings,


Friday, 19 October 2012

Week 7 Tossing Horseshoes: Bye Bye Bye

Howdy everyone! No time to celebrate too much after a good week 6 because week 7 is just around the corner.

Let's try to make it 2 successful weeks in a row.

I would also like to mention that some of the research for my picks come from He's got some of the best free football betting analysis out there, I would recommend a visit.

Before I get into my picks for this week, I will share with you my favorite NFL play, in terms of athleticism. The creativity along with near flawless execution makes this one of the best NFL plays of all time. I say near flawless execution because you'll notice his left hand touches the ground momentarily, so I deducted a half point for the landing. Enjoy.

Colts, Browns 'OVER' 45

A couple of struggling defenses face off against two young rookie QBs, who are learning on the job quite well. Both teams allow over 25 PPG (points per game) and score over 20. They clearly have a better time scoring points than preventing them. Look for Trent Richardson to have a big game against an Indy run D that allows 159 rushing YPG (yards per game). They made Shonn Greene look like a future Hall of Famer last week.
Andrew Luck will also be better this week. Not surprisingly for a good young QB, Luck has struggled on the road and has looked at ease at home. He has an away QB rating of 52.1 with a 1/5 TD/INT ratio. While at home, Luck has a QB rating of 88.6 with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. Look for both offenses to have a big gamer.

Look for both Brandon Wheeden (L) and Andrew Luck (R) to have a big game this Sunday

Saints -2.5 @ Buccaneers

Sure the Buccaneers looked good last week thumping the Chiefs 38-10. But let's not forget they were coming off a bye week to face Brady Quinn. It'll be a different story facing Drew Brees and the Saints coming off their bye week. Tampa Bay defends the run quite well allowing only 3.1 YPC (yards per carry), but the Saints are a run dependent team anyways. Marques Colston and Lance Moore are healthier and Jimmy Graham is expected to play on Sunday. The Saints will develop a game plan to get enough stops against the Bucs for their offense to give them a chance to win. The Saints, the veteran team used to winning, will win a high scoring game by about a touchdown.


Jimmy Graham will not play against Tampa Bay. It's a big loss for the Saints, specially in the red zone. Graham wasn't much of a factor in his last game against San Diego, but was used as a decoy. The line has also shifted pretty drastically and now sits at -1.5 for the Saints. Coming off the bye week, the Saints are good enough to win even without Graham.

Cowboys -2 @ Panthers

A lot people would look at this line and think that the Panthers are the easy choice, coming off a bye week as a home underdog. But the Cowboys know how important this game is for their season as their next 3 games are against the Giants, Falcons and the Eagles. Even after an emotional loss last week, the Cowboys will play with urgency. For Dallas, the return of their center Phil Costa was a significant addition. His impact was evident with the Cowboys running the ball very well. Watch for the Cowboys to lean heavily on the run again against a Panthers team allowing 127.4 rushing YPG. 
Speaking of centers, Panthers center Ryan Kalil will  miss the game against Dallas. The Panthers will struggle to run the ball, and with Jay Ratliff one week healthier, Cam Newton will be under pressure often as well. This should be a close game, but Dallas will win and cover.

Bills -3 vs. Titans

Bills, Titans 'OVER' 46.5

Although it doesn't always translate into wins, Buffalo has a better QB, running game and are a good home team. The Bills have beaten every team they were 'supposed' to beat so far (the Jets were favorite at home in Week 1). The Titans are 0-3 on the road with 3 heavy losses (by 23 points or more). I bet that's the Tennessee that shows up this week at Buffalo.

Even without last year's beard, you should fear Ryan Fitzpatrick this week

As for the over, the Bills allow 32 PPG while the Titans allow 34 PPG. If you thought the 129.5 rushing YPG the Titans allow were high, you may lose your mind when you find out that the Bills allow 173.5 rushing YPG. Even Chris Johnson will likely have a decent game against this D. Matt Hasselbeck didn't look incompetent either last week against the Steelers.
Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to have success against a dismal Titans secondary. In both team's last 5 games, the total has gone over 4 times out of 5. That trend will continue this week.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 18-13

I leave you with this beautiful RG3 run from last week even though it killed me last week in fantasy. What a beast!

Happy Winnings,


Saturday, 13 October 2012

Week 6 Tossing Horseshoes: Home is where the heart is

Went a mere 2-3 last week.

I think the Steelers proved last week and this week that they play down to their competition. They had some chances to put away the Eagles after the numerous Vick fumbles, yet they failed to take full advantage and the game was closer than it should have been.
It was unfortunate that RGIII went down last week, pretty much ending the hope for my 'OVER' call, but that's the nature of this beautiful game.

Before my picks for this week, I wanted to share with you a video that was posted on my twitter wall (follow me @omie_g). If you ever wondered why so many pop hits sounded similar, here's an funny explanation.

Buccaneers -4 vs. Chiefs

In comes Brady Quinn to replace Matt Cassel and although Cassel is not a special QB neither is Brady Quinn. The Chiefs will be running a lot on Sunday to limit the turnovers and to let their beast Jamal Charles do most of the damage. Nonetheless, the Bucs also allow a paltry 3.6 YPC (7th in the NFL) and coming off the bye will have a game plan for the Chiefs running game. The Chiefs also struggle stopping the run allowing 4.6 YPC (23rd in the NFL). Doug Martin has been mediocre at best this season, but I say he'll have a nice game for the Bucs helping them secure a comfortable win.

Bengals, Browns 'OVER' 43.5

Both of these teams can put up decent points, 25 PPG for the Bengals and 20 PPG for the Browns. They also allow quite a few, both teams allow over 25 PPG. Last time these two teams met last than a moth ago, the score was 34-27 Bengals. The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing Cleveland. Even though some key defensive players are returning for both teams; Joe Haden (CLE) and Nate Clements (CIN), I feel that both QB's should have good games. I predict the Bengals to go up early and the Browns to keep it close by keeping up with the Cincinnati.

Cowboys +3.5 @ Ravens


The dangerous Jay Ratliff returns against the Ravens on Sunday. Good luck Flacco!
My only non home team pick this week, hence the title. The Cowboys will be rejoicing the return of Jay Ratliff of D and will be able to put Flacco under pressure throughout the game. The Cowboys will be motivated after their humiliating loss at home against the Bears coming off a bye week. The Ravens are a team that plays down to their competition, as exhibited in their close wins against the Buccaneers and the Browns. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home. I envision a very close game so I'll take the Cowboys and the points.

Dolphins -4 vs. Rams

The Rams are 3-0 at home at 0-2 on the road. With Danny Amendola out, Sam Bradford's passing options are quite limited. Steven Jackson won't have much success either against the beefy Dolphins rush D allowing a league low 2.6 YPC. Even though Reggie Bush is a little nicked up, he should have  pretty good day running against an average rush D. Even with a strong Ramn, secondary, Tannehill and Bush will be able to put up enough points to cover the line. I don't see the Dolphins running away with this game, but I feel they'll cover the points in a low scoring affair.

Seahawks +4 vs. Patriots

CenturyLink Stadium; one of the loudest in the NFL

Welcome to the CenturyLink Field Patriots, just don't get too comfortable. Seattle is one of the toughest to city to play in for an opposition and it's truly a home field advantage for the Seahawks. The Patriots are coming off two wins where they were able to freely run their offense and run teams to the ground. Unfortunately for the Pats, running against this Seahawks D, allowin a measly 3.3 YPC, is easier said than done. Brady won't be able to use the no huddle offense as effectively with the boisterous Seattle crowd, interrupting his rhythm. I don't think the Seahawks offense will do much to impress on Sunday, but they'll do enough to keep it close with the Pats. Seattle will prove on Sunday that home is truly where the heart is and cover the spread.

Last Week: 2-3

Season: 14-12

Happy Winnings,


Friday, 5 October 2012

Week 5 Tossing Horseshoes: 59Fifty > 39Thirty

Before I get into my picks, I would like to confess my admiration for the latest NFL New Era caps. Let's be honest here, the old 39Thirty caps were probably made only to be worn in the 90's. In come these slick and stylish 59Fifty head gears that can be worn casually almost everywhere. Heck Hakeem Nicks doesn't care about his salary as long as the Giants are providing him with enough caps. By the way, they're also Jerry Jones approved.

New Era Oakland Raiders 2012 Official Draft Day 39Thirty Hat - Black
39Thirty Caps
New Era Oakland Raiders On-Field Performance 59FIFTY Fitted Hat - Black
59Fifty Caps






** Update, here's a link to Scott Pianowski's throwing darts for week 5**

The man has been on fire ever since the start of the season. If you don't like my picks, you could always go with his.


Pittsburgh Steelers -3.5 vs. Philadelphia Eagle

The Steelers D has not looked very impressive so far but some heavy reinforcements are on their way with the return of Troy Polamalu and James Harrison. The Steelers will be ready; well prepared for Vick and company after their early bye week. Ben Roethlisberger has taken his game to another level this season, and even against a good Eagles secondary, he should have some success against them. Coming off a bye week and playing at home, the Steelers will beat the Eagles and cover the spread.

James Harris (left) and Troy Polamalu return for the Steelers following their week 4 bye.

Atlanta Falcons, Washington Redskins 'OVER' 51

The Falcons are 3rd in the league scoring 31 points/game while the Redskins are 4th scoring 30.8 points/game. The total has gone OVER in all 4 of Washington's game this season while the Falcons have gone OVER in 2 of their past 4 games. I envision RGIII and Alfred Morris to run freely against a weak Falcons run D and both teams to put up some big points in a tightly fought contest.

New Orleans Saints, San Diego Chargers 'OVER' 53

Say what you will about the Saints, they can still score in bunches. Brees is still an elite quarterback with solid talents around him. Saints D on the other hand would probably allow Mark Sanchez to throw 4 TD's and Shonn Greene to rush for over 100 yards against them. Whichever Charger gets the majority of the carries on Sunday (my bet is on Mathews), look for him to torch that D. The total has gone OVER in 4 out of 4 New Orleans games this season. The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Diego's last 12 games on the road.

Minnesota Vikings -5.5 vs. Tennessee Titans

When I try to visualize this game, I have great difficulties figuring out how the Titans will score in this game. With injuries to their QB (Locker) and top WR (Britt), and an almost non-existent run game (although they looked better last week), the Titans chances look bleak this week. Look for the Vikings to throw some pressure toward the slow footed Hassleback and force some turnovers. The Vikings also have a balanced offense and with Jerome Simpson's return, they will be able to keep opposing D's honest, opening up more lanes for their run game and short passing game.

Houston Texans -8 @ NY Jets

The Jets have to wait at least one more week until their D can get some rest. The trouble with the Jets this week is their biggest weakness, rush D (allowing 173 rushing yards/game) is also their opponents' biggest strength, rushing (gaining 136 rush yards/game). The Jets offense seems to be in complete disarray and missing Santonio Holmes to an injury hurts Sanchez. I have a slight fear that after witnessing more Mark Sanchez struggles against the Texans, Rex Ryan will put in Tebow who will rally his troops and turn it into a close contest. Chances are Rex won't figure that out in time and will be handed another big loss at the hands of the Texans.

The Jets season isn't about to get any better against the Texans

Last week: 3-2

Season: 12-9

Happy Winnings,


Wednesday, 3 October 2012

Tips and Strategies

Before I present my picks for this week, I thought I'd share some useful betting tips with all of you. Here are some strategies that I try to play by via The Sports Geek...

#1 NFL Betting Strategy – Money/Bankroll Management (only bet 2-5% of your bankroll on each bet)

#2 NFL Betting Strategy – Look For Weekly Edges (only bet on select games where you like the lines)

#3 NFL Betting Strategy – Line Shopping (check for lines with different sites to get the best odds)

#4 NFL Betting Strategy – Bet Sober and Don’t Tilt (we all have tough weeks, don't let that affect your betting)

Following these strategies will allow you to have control of your bankroll while giving you a chance to increase your winnings or cap your loss.

Additionally, keeping track of certain factors such as teams overall records, ATS records and so on can also be useful.  For instance, certain teams do very well at home or on the road whereas some teams will play really good against certain opponents. As long as you take these trends with a grain of salt, you’ll be able to better judge which team should win the game by knowing them. Betting sites like Bet365 will have additional match up info and trends.

And lastly, don't be scared to go with your guts. If you follow the strategies stated above, you won't be in too bad of shape if every now and then, you just go with your guts.

Gutsy smurf has got the guts, do you?

Happy Winnings,


Monday, 1 October 2012

Pilot: Lazy Sunday

Sundays doesn't get much better when you wake up late, put on some comfortable clothes and watch some football. Sprinkle on some friends, a big screen TV and delicious snacks and it's a blissful experience. "Lazy Sunday" as I like to call my Sundays during the football season is even more electrifying when $omething extra is on the line. Just a few years ago, I was merely a sports fan tuning in to watch some Football on Sundays. However, I soon discovered the joys of fantasy football and online sports gambling and my Sundays have never been the same. So whether you're watching some football or watching the Chronicles of Narnia with some cupcakes on a Sunday, as long as you're enjoying it, I salute you. #SNACKATTACKMOTHAFUCKA

I've only started betting on Football since 2011 with mild success. I’m writing this blog to keep a tab on my progress, to be held accountable for my picks, to share them with you and to receive your feedback. Rest assured, I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is by betting on my picks.

Hoping that money in mouth becomes money in pocket

I will be posting my week 5 picks a little later on in the week. I’m hoping you’ll join me for the ride and we’ll be raking in the cash together.

Happy Winnings,