Every now and then, I'll make a pick for the Thursday Night Football (TNF) game when I have a feel for it. My Week 11 Horseshoes Tosses will be released on schedule by Friday afternoon.
Dolphins, Bills 'UNDER' 45.5
So far this season, the 'UNDER' has occurred in 6 of the 9 TNF games. Teams come into the TNF game with 3 days rest and they are both physically and mentally fatigued.
Ryan Tannehill is a Texas boy playing his Football in Miami. It's safe to say that he is not accustomed to the weather he's about to face in Buffalo. The forecast is predicting a very cold night and Tannehill will be out of his comfort zone. Because Tannehill won't have much success throwing the ball, the Bills D will be able to focus their efforts on Reggie Bush and slow his progress.
Fred Jackson will miss the game with a concussion, allowing CJ Spiller to be the Bills lead back. Although the Dolphins have struggled against the run lately, they are only allowing 3.8 yards per rush (YPR) this season. The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games. The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Buffalo. Both teams excel in the running game which drains the clock. Scoring will be limited in this game so I'm taking the 'UNDER'.
I've heard of good arguments for taking both the Bills and the Dolphins and I don't see a clear advantage here, so I will refrain from betting ATS in this one. Good luck on Thursday!