Season: 28-18 (60%)
My friends often see me tweet the hashtag #stacksheetsunday and wonder what in the world I'm tweeting about. I thought this would be a solid week to explain what this hashtag is all about after a 5-0 week. In Layman's terms, #stacksheetsunday is about piling up $100 bills on Sunday football betting. It is also a lifestyle I lead on Sundays with my close friends as we watch football, best described by the picture below.
|This is what #stacksheetsunday is all about. Photo cred: Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas)|
Feel free to use #stacksheetmonday #stacksheetmidweek #stacksheetplayoffs on Twitter for all your stacking sheets purposes.
Bengals +4.5 vs. Giants
The Giants lacked focus against the Steelers after a tumultuous week. They will be looking forward to their much needed bye and their subsequent match up against the Packers. The lack of focus will occur because the Giants sit comfortably in 1st place in their division, playing a non-conference game. Eli Manning has struggled in his last 4 games throwing for an average of 212 yards per game while throwing 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in that span. I have no doubts the Giants will bounce back after their bye week, but this will be a let down game for them.
Recap: This went pretty much according to plan. The Bengals jumped out to a big lead, and the Giants never seemed to have recovered. Eli Manning and company looked like they were looking forward to their bye. The duo of Dalton and Green impressed again as expected.
Lions -2.5 @ Vikings
This is not the same Lions team that lost to the Vikings in week 4. The Vikings had 2 special teams touchdowns in that game (kickoff and punt return), which won't happen this time around. Coming off their bye week, the Lions have been much sharper winning 3 out of their last 4 games. The emergence of the youthful Ryan Broyles and Titus Young has provided Mathew Stafford with more weapons and has alleviated some pressure off Calvin Johnson. Coming off a 3 touchdown effort, Mikel Leshoure will produce against this Vikings defense allowing 4.6 rushing yards per carry (YPC) in its last 4 games.
|The Lions will be looking to leapfrog the Vikings in the standings in a divisional match up|
The Vikings team on the other hand is in a tailspin. Christian Ponder is struggling and he's barely looked like an NFL quarterback of late. The explosive Adrian Peterson will keep the Vikings in the game, just like he did last week against the Seahawks, but that won't be enough. Although the Lions allow a league average 4.3 YPC, they have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns all season long. The availability of Percy Harvin will be a key factor for the Vikings offense and special teams. (recall it was Harvin who returned a kickoff for a touchdown against the Lions in week 4). However, these two teams are headed on opposite directions, and come Sunday, the Lions will come away with a victory.
Recap: The Lions have got to find a way to play with intensity throughout the game, instead of only the 4th quarter. They started the game flat and were never able to recover. Adrian Peterson was once again a beast. However, the turning point of the game came when the Calvin Johnson fumbled the ball in the 4th quarter when it was a one possession game. The Vikings scored in the ensuing drive and the game was over.
Buccaneers -3 vs. Chargers
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing like a team on a mission. Their young offensive stars are performing at a very high level. Fantasy owners who have demonstrated patience with rookie Doug Martin are being heavily rewarded. Since the bye week, Doug Martin has rushed for 547 yards in 83 carries in 4 games, an impressive 6.6 YPC. The passing game has been clicking as well with Josh Freeman making better decisions, limiting turnovers. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with 8.1 passing yards per attempt (YPA). Freeman has been aided by the maturing Mike Williams and the veteran Vincent Jackson at his disposal. V-Jax will be highly motivated to play against his former team that let him go last year during free agency.
The Chargers win against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football (TNF) was not very impressive. Their play calling was predictable and they were more opportunistic than dominant. Ryan Mathews will not have any success running the ball against this Bucs defense allowing only 3.4 yards per rush. Although the Bucs secondary has it's issues allowing 8.0 passing YPA, Philip Rivers is not the type of elite quarterback that will lead his team to victory by carrying all the load on his shoulders. Rivers has thrown only 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles this season. I'll take the Bucs to cover against a West coast team playing a 1 pm. East coast game.
Recap: The Chargers played pretty well on Sunday, limiting Josh Freeman and out gaining the Bucs in terms of yards. The Chargers struggled in the 2nd half, only scoring 3 points while allowing 17. They did not seem like the once dominant Chargers and were unable to finish. The Buccaneers are looking like a team that's learning to win and they are doing the little things correctly.
Titans +6 @ Dolphins
After having read some of the trends in this match up, it was impossible not to pick the Titans. Check these trends from Walter Football:
"Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year."
Despite winning by large margins against the Raiders and the Jets this season, the Dolphins do not resemble a commanding team. For all of Miami's accomplishment stopping the run (allowing only 3.6 YPC), they have struggled against the pass. The Dolphins are allowing 7.1 YPA and 293 passing YPG. Prior to his shoulder injury, Jake Locker was appearing like a competent QB, and his return should bolster the Titans' chances. The Titans also have their concerns on defense, struggling against opponent's running and passing game. However, the Dolphins will not be as focused on this game, looking forward to their TNF game, while the Titans will be looking to salvage some pride after a humiliating loss to the Bears. The Titans will keep this game close.
Recap: The trends continue! The Titans played with some swagger after getting blown out the previous week. The Dolphins on the other hand looked dejected and couldn't do anything right. Chris Johnson once again had some impressive stats rushing for 126 yards and a touchdown. It's nice to get some comfortable wins on Sundays on my betting card.
Bears -1.5 vs. Texans
These two teams have many things in common, identical 7-1 records, losses to the Packers, potential candidates for defensive player of the year (J.J. Watt & Charles Tillman) and dominating defenses. Both secondaries are formidable but the Bears have an advantage here. The Bears have only allowed 7 passing touchdowns to the Texans 13, and the Bears have intercepted 13 passes to the Texans 9. The Texans may have had an edge in the run defense, but the loss Brian Cushing evens things out. Although the Texans are averaging 138 rushing YPG, they have not been as efficient running the ball this season, averaging only 3.9 YPC. The subpar Texans O-line will not create enough open lanes to have success against the Bears run defense.
The key to success for the Bears on offense will be to protect Jay Cutler, which will limit the QB's high turnover rate. One of the X factor in this game will be the raucous Chicago crowd who will make it difficult for Matt Schaub to run his offense comfortably. The Bears will prevail in this game in a closely contested match up.
Recap: I cannot use Jay Cutler's injury as an excuse for the Bears failures on Sunday. Even when Cutler was in the game, he was largely ineffective. It would be harsh to put the blame on Cutler because the weather conditions did not favor the passing game. The Texans D did a better job in the conditions forcing more turnovers and they were able to win a ugly affair.
|Will Charles Tillman win defensive player of the year award? A strong showing in this game would help.|
Take a look in the comments section at Sots with his weekly installment of Podium Picks.
Feel free to post your picks in the comments section friends, let's celebrate our picks together!
Once again, a big shout out to Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas) for using his skills to produce a beautiful #stacksheetsunday poster. Thank you.