Friday, 9 November 2012

Week 10 Tossing Horseshoes: #stacksheetsunday (with Recap)

Last week: 5-0!!
Season: 28-18 (60%)

My friends often see me tweet the hashtag #stacksheetsunday and wonder what in the world I'm tweeting about. I thought this would be a solid week to explain what this hashtag is all about after a 5-0 week. In Layman's terms, #stacksheetsunday is about piling up $100 bills on Sunday football betting. It is also a lifestyle I lead on Sundays with my close friends as we watch football, best described by the picture below.


This is what #stacksheetsunday is all about. Photo cred: Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas)


Feel free to use #stacksheetmonday #stacksheetmidweek #stacksheetplayoffs on Twitter for all your stacking sheets purposes.


Bengals +4.5 vs. Giants



The Bengals have been reeling ever since their 3-1 start, but they gave the Broncos a bit of a scare last week. The Giants do not have the personnel to stop AJ Green, possibly the best wide receiver in the NFL at the moment. The key for the Bengals on offense will be to protect their QB because the Giants have some of the best pass rushers in the game.

The Giants lacked focus against the Steelers after a tumultuous week. They will be looking forward to their much needed bye and their subsequent match up against the Packers. The lack of focus will occur because the Giants sit comfortably in 1st place in their division, playing a non-conference game. Eli Manning has struggled in his last 4 games throwing for an average of 212 yards per game while throwing 2 touchdowns and 4 interceptions in that span. I have no doubts the Giants will bounce back after their bye week, but this will be a let down game for them.

Recap: This went pretty much according to plan. The Bengals jumped out to a big lead, and the Giants never seemed to have recovered. Eli Manning and company looked like they were looking forward to their bye. The duo of Dalton and Green impressed again as expected.


Lions -2.5 @ Vikings


This is not the same Lions team that lost to the Vikings in week 4. The Vikings had 2 special teams touchdowns in that game (kickoff and punt return), which won't happen this time around. Coming off their bye week, the Lions have been much sharper winning 3 out of their last 4 games. The emergence of the youthful Ryan Broyles and Titus Young has provided Mathew  Stafford with more weapons and has alleviated some pressure off Calvin Johnson. Coming off a 3 touchdown effort, Mikel Leshoure will produce against this Vikings defense allowing 4.6 rushing yards per carry (YPC) in its last 4 games.


The Lions will be looking to leapfrog the Vikings in the standings in a divisional match up

The Vikings team on the other hand is in a tailspin. Christian Ponder is struggling and he's barely looked like an NFL quarterback of late. The explosive Adrian Peterson will keep the Vikings in the game, just like he did last week against the Seahawks, but that won't be enough. Although the Lions allow a league average 4.3 YPC, they have only allowed 2 rushing touchdowns all season long. The availability of Percy Harvin will be a key factor for the Vikings offense and special teams. (recall it was Harvin who returned a kickoff for a touchdown against the Lions in week 4). However, these two teams are headed on opposite directions, and come Sunday, the Lions will come away with a victory.

Recap: The Lions have got to find a way to play with intensity throughout the game, instead of only the 4th quarter. They started the game flat and were never able to recover. Adrian Peterson was once again a beast. However, the turning point of the game came when the Calvin Johnson fumbled the ball in the 4th quarter when it was a one possession game. The Vikings scored in the ensuing drive and the game was over.

Buccaneers -3 vs. Chargers


The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are playing like a team on a mission. Their young offensive stars are performing at a very high level. Fantasy owners who have demonstrated patience with rookie Doug Martin are being heavily rewarded. Since the bye week, Doug Martin has rushed for 547 yards in 83 carries in 4 games, an impressive 6.6 YPC. The passing game has been clicking as well with Josh Freeman making better decisions, limiting turnovers. The Bucs are 3rd in the NFL with 8.1 passing yards per attempt (YPA). Freeman has been aided by the maturing Mike Williams and the veteran Vincent Jackson at his disposal. V-Jax will be highly motivated to play against his former team that let him go last year during free agency.




The Chargers win against the Chiefs on Thursday Night Football (TNF) was not very impressive. Their play calling was predictable and they were more opportunistic than dominant. Ryan Mathews will not have any success running the ball against this Bucs defense allowing only 3.4 yards per rush. Although the Bucs secondary has it's issues allowing 8.0 passing YPA, Philip Rivers is not the type of elite quarterback that will lead his team to victory by carrying all the load on his shoulders. Rivers has thrown only 12 touchdowns and 10 interceptions while losing 3 fumbles this season. I'll take the Bucs to cover against a West coast team playing a 1 pm. East coast game.

Recap: The Chargers played pretty well on Sunday, limiting Josh Freeman and out gaining the Bucs in terms of yards. The Chargers struggled in the 2nd half, only scoring 3 points while allowing 17. They did not seem like the once dominant Chargers and were unable to finish. The Buccaneers are looking like a team that's learning to win and they are doing the little things correctly.

Titans +6 @ Dolphins


After having read some of the trends in this match up, it was impossible not to pick the Titans. Check these trends from Walter Football:

"Titans are 4-0 ATS after losing by 30+ since 2006.
 Dolphins are 0-10 ATS as favorites of 3.5 or more since 2008.
  Favorites are 1-6 ATS prior to Thursday night games this year."

Despite winning by large margins against the Raiders and the Jets this season, the Dolphins do not resemble a commanding team. For all of Miami's accomplishment stopping the run (allowing only 3.6 YPC), they have struggled against the pass. The Dolphins are allowing 7.1 YPA and 293 passing YPG. Prior to his shoulder injury, Jake Locker was appearing like a competent QB, and his return should bolster the Titans' chances. The Titans also have their concerns on defense, struggling against opponent's running and passing game. However, the Dolphins will not be as focused on this game, looking forward to their TNF game, while the Titans will be looking to salvage some pride after a humiliating loss to the Bears. The Titans will keep this game close.


Recap: The trends continue! The Titans played with some swagger after getting blown out the previous week. The Dolphins on the other hand looked dejected and couldn't do anything right. Chris Johnson once again had some impressive stats rushing for 126 yards and a touchdown. It's nice to get some comfortable wins on Sundays on my betting card.

Bears -1.5 vs. Texans


These two teams have many things in common, identical 7-1 records, losses to the Packers, potential candidates for defensive player of the year (J.J. Watt & Charles Tillman) and dominating defenses. Both secondaries are formidable but the Bears have an advantage here. The Bears have only allowed 7 passing touchdowns to the Texans 13, and the Bears have intercepted 13 passes to the Texans 9. The Texans may have had an edge in the run defense, but the loss Brian Cushing evens things out. Although the Texans are averaging 138  rushing YPG, they have not been as efficient running the ball this season, averaging only 3.9 YPC. The subpar Texans O-line will not create enough open lanes to have success against the Bears run defense.

The key to success for the Bears on offense will be to protect Jay Cutler, which will limit the QB's high turnover rate. One of the X factor in this game will  be the raucous Chicago crowd who will make it difficult for Matt Schaub to run his offense comfortably. The Bears will prevail in this game in a closely contested match up.

Recap: I cannot use Jay Cutler's injury as an excuse for the Bears failures on Sunday. Even when Cutler was in the game, he was largely ineffective. It would be harsh to put the blame on Cutler because the weather conditions did not favor the passing game. The Texans D did a better job in the conditions forcing more turnovers and they were able to win a ugly affair.


Will Charles Tillman win defensive player of the year award? A strong showing in this game would help.


Take a look in the comments section at Sots with his weekly installment of Podium Picks.
Feel free to post your picks in the comments section friends, let's celebrate our picks together!

Once again, a big shout out to Jordan Karkoulas (@JordanKarkoulas) for using his skills to produce a beautiful #stacksheetsunday poster. Thank you.


Happy Winnings,

@omie_g

21 comments:

  1. What a fantastic week. Omar went 5-0 and i was luckily enough myself to go perfect on all my picks. Lets try to keep up the great work and take a look at my Podium Picks for the week.

    Bronze Pick: (1-0):

    Chicago Bears -1 vs. Houston Texans

    Whenever you get a battle between two teams that are very similar on both sides of the ball i look at the two most important factors that help me make the decision on who to pick, home field advantage and special teams, Chicago has the advantage on both these fronts. Aside from that, i believe that although the Houston Texans defense is solid and easily one of the best in the league they lack the game changing and point scoring ability the Bears defense has (just ask Tenesse). Both teams have solid but not elite quarterbacks but the key will be for Cutler to not start doing his old throw off the back foot into double coverage thing that he loves to do. As long as the Bears keep handing off the ball to Forte and lean on their number one defense, I see no issues for this team to go 8-1 and make us some money.

    Silver Pick: (1-0)

    New York Jets +6 @ Seattle Seahawks

    In all honestly, i truly despise the Jets as a team and as an organization (Rex Ryan should go after this season), but the fact is, this team isn't the Kansas City Chiefs, and no matter how bad they are they continue to fight and keep themselves in the playoff picture. Yes Seattle is a good team, and Russel Wilson is a much better quarterback at home, but i dont see the Hawks running away with this game by any stretch of the imagination. Their run defense has been exposed the past couple of weeks, and if they win, (which i wouldn't be surprised they didn't) i dont see them taking this game by more than a field goal. Give me the team that is fighting for their life and coming off the bye to make this game close and make us some money.

    Gold Pick (1-0)

    Tampa Bay Buccaneers -3 vs. San Diego Chargers

    Tampa made us some money last week and they should have no problem doing it again this week. Facing another sub par AFC west team the Bucs should have no problem disposing this Chargers squad. San Diego has some serious issues and i really took that blow out win over Kansas City with a grain of salt (Kansas City is really bad, i mean really really bad) and saw a really sub par team struggling in the first half. Phil Rivers has no arm strength and last years "down" year is starting took look like his ceiling. Antonio Gates probably isnt healthy, their WR can't catch the ball, and their "elite" running back is sharing snaps with Ronnie Brown and Jackie Battle. Tampa is a team that cant be stopped and Doug Martin is a little man on a mission. All cylinders are clicking for this Tampa offense and their defense has looked a lot better than the score lines have showed (Oakland really had no business even being close in that game, tampa was just sitting back for two quarters). Give me the better team thats hot right now and with the home field advantage.

    Thats it for this weeks picks. Hope to see you all next week.

    Also if any of you are fantasy basketball players or just enjoy sports writing, check out my blog. Cheers!

    http://threeinthekeyfantasybasketballpickups.blogspot.ca/

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  2. Nice picks Sots, and congrats on a great start to your Podium Picks.

    We have very similar selections this week so I hope we can both make some money. Even though I have no actions on the Jets game, my gut is leaning towards the Jets to cover as well.

    Good luck Sunday!

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  3. Oh I see.. this whole time I thought you just had some parttime photocopier job on weekends

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    Replies
    1. ZING!! I honestly LOL'd when I read this.

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  4. im pretty sure this omar guy has no idea what hes talking about. go read some tin tin and leave sports betting to the big boys. and that From the Gut pick, more like From the Butt, cause those picks STINK! and dont even get me started on this Sots guy. terrible picks, just terrible.

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    Replies
    1. Hahaha, I guess the haters have found a way to my blog. You could have at least waited for a week where I didn't go 5-0. I look forward to reading your hate message when I have a bad week, seriously I do. See you then.

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    2. whats that old saying? "Even the sun shines on a dogs ass some days."

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    3. You got any blog man? Id be interesting in seeing your picks you seem confident

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    4. first of all, "interested". and no, i dont have a blog, im not much of a football guy, but even i know these picks are ludicrous.

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    5. you have been great. keep it up. got a pick for tonites game and the over/under

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    6. Thank you for the kind words. I don't have a great feel for tonight's game.

      It's supposed to be a rainy and cold night in Pittsburgh. The Steelers are not the type of team that play down to their competition, losing games to the Titans and the Raiders this season. The Chiefs will play for pride on MNF after getting blown out against the Chargers last week in another nationally televised game.

      If I had to bet on this game, I'd go with

      Chiefs +14
      Steelers, Chiefs 'UNDER' 40.5

      Good luck!

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    7. Good call Omar, to make up for my loses i put some money down on the Chiefs

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    8. Quick tip Sots:

      Don't bet on a game to make up for your previous losses. That's how people lose control of their bankroll.

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    9. I liked the Chiefs already, had them in one parlay (which the lions ruined). So i made relatively small bet since i already liked them to win

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  5. I ended up putting some money down on the MNF game.

    I parlayed the Chiefs at +14.5 and took the 'UNDER' 40.5.

    It's going to get ugly.

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  6. are you doing any college tonite, 2 games, what u think

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    Replies
    1. Sorry friend. I don't follow College Football closely enough to bet on them. I will be writing a short piece on tomorrow's TNF game soon though. Stay tuned.

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    2. another great call thurs on the under tks omie, u are hands above the sbr handicappers.you are geting me out of a deep hole slowly

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    3. Thanks Ron! I'm glad I could help. Hopefully I'll have you on my side when things get a little tough. But until then, let's strike it rich!

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