Friday, 23 November 2012

Week 12 Tossing Horseshoes: No Sure Thing in Sports

This Week: 1-2
Last Week: 6-0 (Including the TNF game)
Season: 37-20 (65%)

The largest bet I made this year was, surprisingly, on a basketball game. The game was on November 7th when the Toronto Raptors visited the Dallas Mavericks. After comparing lots of advanced stats (in favor of Dallas), and considering other factors (Toronto's 4th game in 5th night, injury to Kyle Lowry), I took the Mavericks at -5.5 ATS. I was extremely confident about that pick. It made me feel even better when the line quickly moved up to -7 in favor of the Mavericks.

Dallas was in control from the start taking a 12 point lead at the end of the first quarter. They were up by 12 with about 8 minutes left in the game. They were close to putting the Raptors away on several occasions yet the Raptors refused to surrender and covered by half a point! I was absolutely devastated. I am sure you have some bad beat stories. Share them in the comments section.

This is what makes sports wagering so exciting yet so gut wrenching at times. This is just a reminder that if you tail my picks, please do so responsibly. We'll all be better for it.

Here's a South Park clip of Canadians interacting. I just want you to know that you are all my friends, buddies and guys :D

I am off to a slow start this week, going 1-2 on my Thanksgiving Day picks. I have realized that I am more adept picking ATS as opposed to totals. Rest assured, I will be making adjustments as I evolve as a prognosticator. Let's strike it rich friends!

Steelers -1.5 @ Browns

Even without Ben Roethlisberger, the Steelers were competitive last week against division leading Ravens. Charlie Batch, the 3rd string QB for the Steelers will be the started this week. Since 2010, Charlie Batch has won 3 of his 4 starts. Batch may not carry his team to victory on his own, but he will not lose it for them either. The duo of Jonathan Dwyer and Rashhard Menedhall will be asked to provide the bulk of the offense. The Browns have struggled stopping the run allowing 5 rushing touchdowns in their last 4 games.

On the other side, Brandon Weeden will be leading the Browns at home after a deflating loss to the Cowboys. As expected from a rookie QB, Weeden has had his ups and downs. It is however about to get a lot worse for Weeden. From Walter Football "Dick LeBeau (Steelers DC) is 17-1 SU vs. rookie quarterbacks" He will get looks against the Pittsburgh defense that he has not yet seen as a rookie. Pittsburgh D has allowed an average of 15 points per game in its last 5 games, including games vs. the Redskins, Giants and Ravens. The Steelers are allowing a league best 5.9 passing YPA (yards per attempt) and 3.8 rushing YPA, 5th in the NFL respectively. Even though Trent Richardson is too talented to be completely shut down, he will not have a stellar game this Sunday. This game will be dominated by the defense with Pittsburgh's D coming out on top.

Dick Lebeau is 17-1 SU against rookie QBs.


Titans -4 @ Jaguars

While I was researching the Jaguars last week before adding them as a late pick, I noticed that they were 4-0 ATS on the road and 0-5 ATS at home. I then decided that if the Jaguars played well against the Texans, I would fade them the following week at home. The Jaguars play well on the road thus diminishing the spread; then they get blown away at home and the spread inflates right back. This pattern will continue against the Titans.

Chris Johnson finally resembles the Chris Johnson of 2009. In his last 4 games, he has averaged 142.0 rushing YPG and 7.2 YPR. (yards per rush). Jacksonville has allowed a mediocre 4.2 rushing YPA and 14 rushing touchdowns (30th in NFL). Simply put, the Jaguars will not be able to slow CJ2K on Sunday.

Unfortunately for the Jaguars, Chad Henne and Jalen Parmele are starting on offense. A week ago, Chad Penne performed flawlessly and nearly upset the Texans on his own. It will be near impossible to repeat that performance even against a Titans secondary allowing 7.7 passing YPA (27th in NFL). The Titans are coming off the bye and they will be prepared to face Henne. Tennessee is clearly the superior team here and getting them at -4 is good value.

Rams +1.5 @ Cardinals

Prior to last week's game against the Jets, Sam Bradford was beginning to get on a roll averaging a QB rating of 91.7 in his previous 4 games. Sam Bradford must limit his turnover in order to give his team a chance to win. Bradford must be vigilant because the Cardinals are 4th in the NFL with 14 interceptions. Steven Jackson, who recently ran for over 100 yards against the 49ers, will be trusted to carry the load Sunday.

Getting the start at QB for the Cardinals is Ryan Lindley. He is starting because his O Line is atrocious and can't protect the QB, not because of merit. I hope he has a solid insurance plan because he's about to get thrashed. Last time these two teams met, Kevin Kolb was sacked 9 times. The Rams are 9th in NFL with 27 sacks and they rush the QB forcefully. Chris Beanie Wells is returning for the Cardinals but his potential has always been greater than his results. The Cardinals cannot score sufficiently with the personnel they have on offense. I will gladly take the Rams as underdogs.

This is what happened to Kevin Kolb last time the Rams played the Cardinals



Saints +1 vs. 49ers

I like the Saints this week for the same reasons that I liked them last week. After losing some very close games early on in the season, this team has shifted gears. Drew Brees is on fire, Jimmy Graham and Mark Ingram are healthy, and the wide receivers are consistent. According to, the Saints are the most efficient team in the Red Zone, scoring a touchdown on 71% of their chances. Simply put, the Saints come out with 7 points on most occasions when they are in the Red Zone. Although the 49ers have some great defensive numbers, they are 16th in the NFL in Red Zone defense allowing a TD in 52.6% of occasions.

Colin Kaepernick was phenomenal a week ago. The Bears were surprised by how calm Kaepernick was under pressure. The Saints will be better prepared to face Kaepernick after watching his last start on tape. Frank Gore is silencing his critics who have questioned his durability this season. Gore is averaging 5.3 YPC (yards per carry) so the Saints need to emphasize stopping the run. The Saints allow a ton of yardage both against the run and pass. They allow 5.1 YPA against the run and 8.5 YPA against the pass, 31st and 32nd in the NFL in respective categories. However, the Saints D is competent in the Red Zone allowing a TD on 53% of occasions (17th in the NFL). The Saints D will continue to get enough stops to give themselves and their offense a chance to win. Give me the home underdogs Saints!

Drew Brees will look to lead his team past a strong 49ers defense

I look forward to your feedback and comments. Make sure to check out the comments section to see the interesting picks my friends and readers have posted here.

Thanks very much for reading and please be sure to follow my blog and share it with your friends. Good luck with your bets friends



  1. Love the Saints also

  2. love your picks omie definately gonna use them. also I like denver, balt and atlanta, what u think. Ron

    1. Thanks Ron!

      To be honest, I prefer San Diego this week. The Ravens play poorly on the road, specially their offense. San Diego is playing for their coach and making a final push at the playoffs.

      The Broncos are on a roll, but 10.5 points is a high number to cover on the road. I'm fading this game.

      My heart is with Tampa, after they've come through for me in the clutch so many times this season. I see this game being close and it could go either way. If the line moves to +3 for the Bucs, I'll put a small bet on them. But I can't blame you for taking the Falcons either.

      BOL Ron!

  3. HI there my friend, first of all thanks for the awesome good job done!! lets hope the best will come to all of us ((: BOL guys

  4. The roller coaster ride continues, and after a sub-par week 10 I was VERY lucky to find myself 3-0 by the end of week 11 (Congrats to Omar for going 6-0, this kid is a superstar). Last week was the type of Sunday that makes one lose year's off their life. Let's hope this week we can get to 3-0 without all the pain and heartache. Enough talk, let's get down to business and take a gander at this week's Podium Picks!

    Bronze Pick (2-1)

    San Diego Chargers +1 vs. Baltimore Ravens

    Last week the Chargers almost gave me a heart attack, this week I'm calling for the same results but a smoother ride to victory. I know the Ravens have gone 3-0 with the losses of Ray Lewis and Lardarius Webb, but the fact is they have done it against weak competition and not in impressive fashion the majority of the time. The last time the Ravens played a team that wasn't either starting a rookie QB (Cleveland), their back up QB (Pittsburg) and one of the worst defenses in the NFL (Oakland), they were annihilated by a Houston squad 43-13. Now I'm not saying the Chargers are even close to the Texans caliber, but I do think they matchup well with this Baltimore squad and will upset this team come Sunday. The Chargers have the third best run defense in the NFL and I see them shutting down Ray Rice and forcing the Ravens to beat them with the play of Joe "the mediocre" Flacco. On the offensive side Phil Rivers is still a turnover machine but with the new addition of Danario Alexander I can see him shredding this sub par Ravens defense with the long ball, and pounding the running game with a healthier Ryan Mathews. Give me the healthier team playing at home and fighting for their playoff lives.

    Silver Pick (2-1)

    Atlanta Falcons -1 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers

    How dare I go against this Buccaneers team that has covered for me 3 straight weeks in a row, this is utter blasphemy! The matter of the fact is, all good things must come to an end, and the ride stops here for this red-hot Bucs squad. I know that the Falcons haven't look super impressive as of late, and that they haven't beat many "quality teams" but the same argument can be made against this Tampa squad. Remember this is the same team that lost 4 out of 5 games to teams' like the Redskins and Cowboys (both teams' the Falcons beat) and barely squeezed out a win against a below average Panthers squad last week. The reason I'm leaning towards the Falcons is because they have the 4th best passing attack in the NFL and the Bucs have the worst passing defense, this is a perfect set up for Matt Ryan and his Pro Bowl receiving corp. Sure the Bucs have the best run defense, but the Falcons don't run the ball often to begin with. I see the Falcons exposing the Buccaneers and showing the league that Josh Freeman and this group are still not part of the NFL elite.

    Gold Pick (3-0)

    Oakland Raiders +9 @ Cincinnati Bengals

    I'll make this one short and simple for you guys. Do I think the Bengals will win? Most likely, but do I think they win by more than 9 points? Heck no! This is the same team that lost to Miami at home and lost to the Browns on the road (and only beat them by 7 at home), they just simply aren't a team that dominates over opponents when we expect them too. The Raiders are not a good football team, plain and simple, but they still have Carson Palmer (who will be motivated to play well against his former team) and they have extremely fast wide receivers who can stretch the field, something the slow CB of the Bengals have struggled with. This game will most likely be a shootout, but I can't see the Bengals pulling out a win by more than a touchdown. Give me the squad with the opposing team's former franchise QB to keep the game close and make us some money.

    That's it for this week's addition of the Podium Picks...good luck and see you all next week.

    1. Nice picks Sots! Good luck to you on Sunday.

      Just don't ever call me a kid though buddy ;) I'm older than you.

  5. Thanks TST. BOL to you as well!

  6. Well, I hope Sots and Omie will have a good week guys
    BOL to us

  7. thank you for the picks omie cant wait till kick off time!!! thx agin mike

    1. My pleasure Mike! I'm real excited too about today.

      Good luck buddy!

  8. what a weekend haha now we must regroup for next wk, we live to fight another day, someone said that. well we tried anyhow, was a tough wk to handicap i believe. cant keep us down long tks omie your friend ron

  9. omie, are you doing anything on tonites game, could use some input for your dummie friend. ha tks buddy

    1. Appreciate the kind words Ron. It was a tough Sunday indeed. I'm sure we'll bounce back strong next week.

      I like the Panthers tonight. With McCoy out, I have trouble seeing how the Eagles offense will get going. Nick Foles is prone to throw interceptions if he's having to pass too often. The Panthers D also get good pressure on QB's making life even tougher for Foles.

      Good luck tonight my friend!

    2. go panthers !!! you never know what you will get from that team week in and week out,i fell asleep during the game so it was nice to see the panthers win, so lets roll into week13 omie and kik some butt i will check back this week to see what you got cooking up in the pick department. talk to you soon michael

    3. Hey Mike, glad the MNF worked out for both of us. It was a tough Sunday for me. My picks should be out by late tomorrow night or early Thursday.

      Thanks for the support!

  10. omie, great call last nite. i parlayed panthers and over ( i knew that what u liked, just didnt say on total haha) tks Ron

    1. Ron, I'm glad that worked out after a slow Sunday. Haha, nice betting on Monday buddy! I kept it low risk betting only the spread. But great call taking the over as well.

      I'm working on my picks now, doing some extra research after a tough Sunday. They should be out by late Wednesday, early Thursday.

      Talk soon.