Week 7 Tossing Horseshoes: Bye Bye Bye

Howdy everyone! No time to celebrate too much after a good week 6 because week 7 is just around the corner.

Let's try to make it 2 successful weeks in a row.

I would also like to mention that some of the research for my picks come from WalterFootball.com. He's got some of the best free football betting analysis out there, I would recommend a visit.


Before I get into my picks for this week, I will share with you my favorite NFL play, in terms of athleticism. The creativity along with near flawless execution makes this one of the best NFL plays of all time. I say near flawless execution because you'll notice his left hand touches the ground momentarily, so I deducted a half point for the landing. Enjoy.

Colts, Browns 'OVER' 45

A couple of struggling defenses face off against two young rookie QBs, who are learning on the job quite well. Both teams allow over 25 PPG (points per game) and score over 20. They clearly have a better time scoring points than preventing them. Look for Trent Richardson to have a big game against an Indy run D that allows 159 rushing YPG (yards per game). They made Shonn Greene look like a future Hall of Famer last week.
Andrew Luck will also be better this week. Not surprisingly for a good young QB, Luck has struggled on the road and has looked at ease at home. He has an away QB rating of 52.1 with a 1/5 TD/INT ratio. While at home, Luck has a QB rating of 88.6 with a 6/2 TD/INT ratio. Look for both offenses to have a big gamer.

Look for both Brandon Wheeden (L) and Andrew Luck (R) to have a big game this Sunday

Saints -2.5 @ Buccaneers

Sure the Buccaneers looked good last week thumping the Chiefs 38-10. But let's not forget they were coming off a bye week to face Brady Quinn. It'll be a different story facing Drew Brees and the Saints coming off their bye week. Tampa Bay defends the run quite well allowing only 3.1 YPC (yards per carry), but the Saints are a run dependent team anyways. Marques Colston and Lance Moore are healthier and Jimmy Graham is expected to play on Sunday. The Saints will develop a game plan to get enough stops against the Bucs for their offense to give them a chance to win. The Saints, the veteran team used to winning, will win a high scoring game by about a touchdown.

**Update**

Jimmy Graham will not play against Tampa Bay. It's a big loss for the Saints, specially in the red zone. Graham wasn't much of a factor in his last game against San Diego, but was used as a decoy. The line has also shifted pretty drastically and now sits at -1.5 for the Saints. Coming off the bye week, the Saints are good enough to win even without Graham.

Cowboys -2 @ Panthers

A lot people would look at this line and think that the Panthers are the easy choice, coming off a bye week as a home underdog. But the Cowboys know how important this game is for their season as their next 3 games are against the Giants, Falcons and the Eagles. Even after an emotional loss last week, the Cowboys will play with urgency. For Dallas, the return of their center Phil Costa was a significant addition. His impact was evident with the Cowboys running the ball very well. Watch for the Cowboys to lean heavily on the run again against a Panthers team allowing 127.4 rushing YPG. 

Speaking of centers, Panthers center Ryan Kalil will  miss the game against Dallas. The Panthers will struggle to run the ball, and with Jay Ratliff one week healthier, Cam Newton will be under pressure often as well. This should be a close game, but Dallas will win and cover.

Bills -3 vs. Titans

Bills, Titans 'OVER' 46.5

Although it doesn't always translate into wins, Buffalo has a better QB, running game and are a good home team. The Bills have beaten every team they were 'supposed' to beat so far (the Jets were favorite at home in Week 1). The Titans are 0-3 on the road with 3 heavy losses (by 23 points or more). I bet that's the Tennessee that shows up this week at Buffalo.

Even without last year's beard, you should fear Ryan Fitzpatrick this week

As for the over, the Bills allow 32 PPG while the Titans allow 34 PPG. If you thought the 129.5 rushing YPG the Titans allow were high, you may lose your mind when you find out that the Bills allow 173.5 rushing YPG. Even Chris Johnson will likely have a decent game against this D. Matt Hasselbeck didn't look incompetent either last week against the Steelers.
Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to have success against a dismal Titans secondary. In both team's last 5 games, the total has gone over 4 times out of 5. That trend will continue this week.

Last Week: 4-1

Season: 18-13

I leave you with this beautiful RG3 run from last week even though it killed me last week in fantasy. What a beast!

Happy Winnings,

@Omie_G